Road traffic accidents rate in Tyumen: 21^th century trends

   The article deals with the problems of road traffic accidents rate in a large Russian city Tyumen in the late 20 – early 21^st centuries. The statistics describes the actual road safety (RS) in Tyumen in 1998–2020. The article presents models based on specific data from Tyumen, that confirm R. Smid's law on the relationship between motorization and the estimated characteristics of RS – human risk (HR) and transportation risk (TR). The trends of HR and TR formation over time for the Tyumen transport system correspond to the stage of a qualitative transition from the third to the fourth RS paradigm. The leading countries are characterized by the fifth paradigm of RS in the field of ensuring the safety of the population today. This is a system of views based on the ideas of the highest value of human life and the need to limit transport mobility, transfer it to another quality. Tyumen with the values of the third and fourth paradigms of RS in practice, so far in all objective manifestations repeats the experience of cities in other countries that passed this stage 20–30 years ago.

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